Rules and ethics
How to forecast employer branding skills demand for UK hiring teams
A step-by-step way to turn vacancy, attrition and platform-change signals into a written employer branding and recruitment marketing skills forecast.
What to take away
- A skills demand forecast is a two-page document that lists each capability you need, the evidence for it, the current gap, and one named owner.
- Four inputs feed itvacancy data, attrition records, platform changes, and national labour market figures.
- Score demand and supply on a three-point scale, then rank the rows to set priorities.
- Review the document every quarter and tie each row to a budget line.
- The final section points to the England outlook for 2027 before you commit any training budget.
What the forecast document contains
Keep the finished document to two pages. Each row covers one capability, the signal that proves demand, the current supply inside the team, and the owner. The practical detail is set out in What England's 2027 employer branding outlook.
Employer branding and recruitment marketing share one table because they draw on the same people, agencies and budgets. Set the horizon at four to six quarters, since anything longer becomes guesswork.
| Field | What to record | Worked entry |
|---|---|---|
| Capability | One skill, not a job title | Short-form video editing |
| Demand signal | Vacancy count, leaver count, platform date | 14 adverts required video in 12 months |
| Current supply | Who can do the work now | Two of five staff, both part time |
| Owner | A person with a job title | Brand manager |
Four inputs to collect
Collect these four in this order. Each one sharpens the next.
- Vacancy data. Export twelve months of adverts from your applicant tracking system and tag each one with the skills it names.
- Attrition records. Note which skills left with departing staff, using exit interviews where you run them.
- Platform change. List every channel, tool or advert format going live in the next year, with dates.
- National figures. The ONS employment and employee types data shows whether your pattern matches the wider UK labour market.
Scoring demand against supply
Use three levels for each side: high, medium and low. Score demand from vacancy counts and platform dates. Score supply from a capability audit of the people you employ now. Then rank the rows.
- High demand, low supplytrain or recruit this quarter.
- High demand, medium supplypair a junior with a specialist.
- Low demand, high supplyleave the row alone for a year.
- Any row with no evidencedelete it.
Handle candidate and staff data lawfully
Exit interviews, engagement surveys and candidate feedback all hold personal data. The ICO guide to GDPR sets out what you must record and how long you may keep it. Strip names before the numbers reach the forecast table.
Example: a five-person team in Manchester
A housing association ran this exercise across five marketing and recruitment staff. Vacancy data showed eleven adverts asking for paid social skills, while one person held them. A planned move into short-form video added a second row. The forecast named the brand manager as owner and set an April review date.
A forecast without a named owner is a wish list. Put a person against every row.
Drafting rules for owners and review dates
Write owners as a job title plus a name, never a team. Add a review date in the first week of each quarter and a budget line against the largest gap. Check recruitment adverts against the CAP Code before publishing, because a misleading advert damages the brand you are building.
Set a review rhythm
Put the first review in the diary before you circulate the document, then book the second for the following quarter. Give the owner of the largest gap one clear action, such as booking a training provider or opening a vacancy. Ask every owner to bring fresh evidence to the meeting, not a status update.
Compare with the England outlook
Your own data shows what the team lacks today. The employer branding skills forecast sets out which capabilities matter for 2027, how to score them, and what evidence to check before you invest in training. Use it as the external check on your internal table.
Common questions
How often should the forecast be updated?
Quarterly suits most UK hiring teams. Bring the date forward if a platform change lands or a senior marketer leaves.
Who should own the document?
The head of talent acquisition usually owns it. The brand lead and the recruitment marketing manager contribute rows and evidence.
Do we need planning software?
No. A spreadsheet with five columns covers most teams. Move to a dedicated tool only when you plan across three or more markets.
What about data protection?
Keep candidate and staff feedback inside HR systems and put anonymised counts in the forecast. The ICO guidance linked above covers retention periods.
